NEW DELHI (AP) The experts' consensus was that India had the most HIV cases in the world 5.7 million and that the number would rise if aggressive measures weren't adopted.
On Friday, that consensus changed dramatically when international AIDS experts and Indian health officials revealed new data showing India to have less than half of that number 2.5 million people infected with HIV.
Despite the lower number of HIV cases, the government and the international community are paying more attention and more money to fighting AIDS in India. The Indian health minister on Friday announced a new phase of the federal AIDS control program, with the Indian government pledging US$1.95 billion (1.43 billion) nearly 40 times what it spent in the last round.
This new plan has an expected budget of US$2.8 billion (2.06 billion), and has attracted high-profile donors, including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Clinton Foundation and the U.N. Development Program.
The previous plan, announced in 1999, had a budget of less than US$350 million (257 million).
The inflated HIV numbers were actually good for India, said Health Minister Anubani Ramadoss. ''This has helped us. This has put more pressure on us. Due to this pressure, now I have got a healthy budget.''
And the epidemic is far from over, he said.
''It doesn't make a difference whether it's 1 million or 10 million,'' Ramadoss said. ''The fact of the matter is there's a problem with HIV in India.''
The reduced numbers come from expanded surveys and an improved methodology, providing a far more accurate _ and more encouraging _ portrait of India's HIV epidemic, said Ramadoss. Experts from the United Nations and the World Health Organization endorsed the new data.
An earlier U.N. study estimated 5.7 million HIV cases, which would have been the highest total in the world. According to the new data, India, which has a population of 1.1 billion, has fewer HIV cases than South Africa and Nigeria.
The new estimates were compiled after greatly expanding the number of clinics surveyed and incorporating data from a far-reaching national household survey.
''We are today a lot more confident that what is being presented to you is closer to the true prevalence as it exists in the population,'' said Peter Ghys, manager of epidemic and impact monitoring at UNAIDS.
While the new HIV estimates were a result of statistical breakthroughs more than medical ones, Ramadoss said that India's HIV-infection rate showed cause for optimism with a decline from about .38 percent of the population in 2002 to about .36 percent now.
Most encouragingly, HIV rates in southern states, where the disease was most prevalent, have stabilized or begun to decline, Ramadoss said, crediting targeted interventions and education outreach programs.
The infection rate remains above 1 percent in several southern states, including Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, although it is less than 1 percent in Tamil Nadu. Rates remain high among sex workers, their customers, and men who have sex with men.
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